Analysis of Data from Arbitron Toplines

The table below has been created by merging the seasonal statistics into a yearly average in order to have a sense of trends. Several observations on the numbers:

1) They sometimes vary so greatly from season to season that this causes me to question their connection to reality. I hope that someone with expertise in statistical evaluation will examine the data and comment. As has been stated in the general discussion of Arbitron, these numbers are not, in the opinion of most of us associated with this movement, appropriate determinants for policy decisions regarding programming. However, as the Scott regime has defined success in terms of Arbitron numbers, let's evaluate "success" on their terms.

2) Press releases and other public statements by officials have claimed to have "doubled" the audience. None of the various indices reported here support this claim.

3) KPFK -- KPFK's programming and personnel were radically changed under orders of Scott in January 1995. There has been a decline in the CUME, and increase in the AQH and an increase in the TSL -- though none of it close to "doubling" one way or the other. KPFK listeners listen less than at KPFA and WBAI, now and before program changes were made.

4) KPFA -- KPFA's CUME and AQH have risen in fits and starts since 1990, but show a small increasing trend.

5) WBAI -- WBAI's numbers have the largest fluctuation fron year, and if you study the seasonal numbers, you will see large seasonal variations reported. Overall, WBAI's audience numbers continually increased through 1992, and have fluctuated close to the same general range, with the exception of a dip in 1993. All categories show a signficant increase for 1996.

6)The statistics for 1997 have not been provided subsequent to Winter 1997. Only Fall statistics for 1990 were provided, thus those years represent only only quarter's report. I have averaged the METRO SURVEY AREA statistics ONLY, as TOTAL SURVEY AREA numbers were not available for the more recent years. In the case of WBAI, the TOTAL SURVEY AREA appears to increase the numbers only slightly, so lack of TOTAL SURVEY AREA data should be significant in WBAI's case. KPFK, on the other hand, because of its extremely powerful transmitter has significant numbers of listeners outside the METRO SURVEY AREA, which represents Los Angeles County primarily. KPFK can additionally be received in 4-5 surrounding counties, so lack of TOTAL SURVEY AREA data might significantly alter the trends reflected in the data provided. There is no way to tell from the information provided.

YEARLY
AVG

KPFA
CUME | AQH | RTG | TSL

WBAI
CUME | AQH | RTG | TSL

KPFK
CUME | AQH | RTG | TSL

1997
(PARTIAL)

147,400 | 8400 | 2.7  | N/A 169,700 | 7900 | 1.2  | N/A 105,500 | 4100 | 1.1  | N/A

1996

132,050 | 5100 | 2.45| 4:58 175,950 | 9525 | 1.05| 7:00 117,475 | 4000 | 1.25| 4:12

1995

140,725 | 6175 | 2.65| 5:28 167,850 | 6400 | 1.17| 4:54 113,250 | 3350 | 1.33| 3:45

1994

118,725 | 5025 | 2.25| 5:40 170,825 | 6550 | 1.22| 4:49 123,775 | 3550 | 1.28| 3:55

1993

117,475 | 4900 | 2.23| 4:54 147,925 | 5950 | 1.07| 5:03 144,175 | 3750 | 1.53| 3:37

1992

123,750 | 5600 | 2.35| 5:48 168,825 | 5425 | 1.2 | 4:06 126,222 | 3150 | 1.32| 3:15

1991

121,100 | 5425 | 2.35| 5:34 151,300 | 7800 | 1.22| 5:42 141,750 | 4150 | 1.5 | 3:43

1990
(PARTIAL)

107,000 | 5000 | 2.1 | 5:54 131,300 | 4700 |  .09| 4:30 160,700 | 4700 | 1.7 | 3:42

KPFA SEASONAL | WBAI SEASONAL | KPFK SEASONAL
ARBITRON TERMS AND METHODS

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